Price relative to the 200-day moving average
The Mayer Multiple is a ratio of the current Bitcoin price to the 200-day moving average. Created by Trace Mayer, it provides a simple way to evaluate whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its long-term trend. A value of 1.0 means price equals the 200-day SMA.
When the Mayer Multiple drops below 0.8, Bitcoin is trading significantly below its 200-day average. Historically, these periods have been excellent long-term accumulation opportunities.
When the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4, Bitcoin is trading at more than 2.4x its 200-day average, indicating potential overextension. Historically, these levels have preceded corrections.
Thresholds: Below 0.8 = Buy Zone, Above 2.4 = Sell Zone. The median Mayer Multiple throughout Bitcoin's history is approximately 1.4.
The Mayer Multiple is Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day simple moving average. A reading of 1.0 means price is exactly at the 200-day average. Above 1.0 means price is extended above trend; below 1.0 means price is trading below trend.
Historical thresholds: below 1.0 has consistently marked accumulation zones (all three major bear-market bottoms since 2012 printed Mayer between 0.38 and 0.71). Above 2.4 was a classic distribution signal — but that threshold has gotten unreliable. Bitcoin's 2021 double top printed Mayer 1.97 at the April top and 1.48 at the November ATH — neither leg reached 2.4.
Mayer is the fastest of the cycle indicators. Because it's a ratio to a 200-day average, it responds quickly to short-term moves. A 20% price spike in a week will move Mayer noticeably. Useful for catching short-term extensions, less useful for long-term cycle positioning.
Cycle peaks printed Mayer 5.82 (December 2013), 3.73 (December 2017), 1.97 (April 2021 interim top), and 1.48 (November 2021 ATH). 2021's double top shows the pattern's degradation — both legs fell well short of 2.4. Each cycle top has produced a lower Mayer reading than the last, consistent with the diminishing-returns pattern seen across all indicators. The classic "sell above 2.4" rule worked in 2013 and 2017 but missed both 2021 tops entirely.
| Event | Date | Mayer | vs 2.40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 peak | Dec 2013 | 5.82 | +143% |
| 2017 peak | Dec 2017 | 3.73 | +55% |
| Apr 2021 top | Apr 2021 | 1.97 | −18% |
| Nov 2021 ATH | Nov 2021 | 1.48 | −38% |
| 2015 bottom | Jan 2015 | 0.38 | — |
| 2018 bottom | Dec 2018 | 0.51 | — |
| 2022 bottom | Nov 2022 | 0.71 | — |
Bottoms have been remarkably consistent: 2015 bottom at Mayer 0.38, 2018 bottom at 0.51, 2022 bottom at 0.71. Every major Bitcoin capitulation has printed Mayer below 0.75. The "buy below 1.0" rule has worked across 13+ years.
Unlike the 2-Year MA or Power Law, Mayer Multiple reacts within days to major moves. Its 200-day denominator makes it sensitive enough to flag short-term extensions while still smoothing out daily noise. This makes it useful as a tactical overlay on slower indicators.
The 2.4 upper threshold is outdated. Academic papers from 2018 calibrated on cycles where Mayer regularly exceeded 3. In 2021 the April interim top reached Mayer 1.97 and the November ATH only 1.48 — both below 2.4. Using a hard 2.4 trigger today means you may never get an exit signal.
Mayer bounces around in ranging markets. During prolonged consolidation, price oscillates around the 200-day MA and Mayer ping-pongs between 0.9 and 1.1 — no useful signal in either direction.
Unlike MVRV Z-Score, Mayer doesn't normalize by volatility. A Mayer of 2.0 in 2013 (during extreme volatility) means something different than Mayer 2.0 in 2024 (during lower volatility). This is why the raw thresholds have drifted.
Mayer is intentionally simple — just price divided by a moving average. That's a feature for clarity but a bug for sophistication. It ignores volume, on-chain data, sentiment, and macro context. Use it as one signal among several.
Mayer Multiple below 1.0 signals value — start buying on Coinbase.
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Use Mayer Multiple to find entry points and buy on Gemini's secure platform.
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