Bitcoin Market Cycles

A Bitcoin market cycle is the recurring pattern of bull and bear markets that follows each Bitcoin halving. Approximately every four years, the halving cuts new Bitcoin supply in half. This supply shock, combined with growing demand, has historically triggered a 12-18 month bull run followed by an extended bear market with 77-85% drawdowns. Four complete or in-progress cycles have occurred since the first halving in 2012.

Bitcoin cycles have historically lasted approximately 4 years from halving to halving. The bull phase typically runs 12-18 months after the halving, followed by a 12-14 month bear market. The 2012 cycle ran about 26 months from halving to bear market bottom. The 2016 cycle lasted about 29 months, and the 2020 cycle about 30 months.

Yes. Each cycle has delivered lower percentage returns than the previous one: +9,500% (2012), +2,950% (2016), +690% (2020). This diminishing return pattern is mathematically natural as Bitcoin's market capitalization grows larger. However, even "diminished" cycle returns of several hundred percent far exceed traditional asset class performance.