₿₿₿Bitcoin Horizon
Dashboard
Skip to content
  1. Home
  2. ›
  3. Glossary

Binary CDD

Binary CDD simplifies Coin Days Destroyed into a binary signal — either 1 (above average) or 0 (below average) — based on whether the current CDD exceeds its long-term average. Summing this over time reveals sustained periods of heavy or light old-coin movement.

Definition

Binary CDD simplifies Coin Days Destroyed into a binary signal — either 1 (above average) or 0 (below average) — based on whether the current CDD exceeds its long-term average. Summing this over time reveals sustained periods of heavy or light old-coin movement.

Explanation

Binary CDD transforms the noisy raw Coin Days Destroyed metric into a clean binary value. Each day is assigned a 1 if CDD exceeds its long-term average, or a 0 if it falls below. By summing these binary values over a rolling window (commonly 30 or 90 days), analysts can identify sustained periods where old coins are consistently active or consistently dormant.

When the rolling sum of Binary CDD is persistently high, it indicates that long-term holders are spending day after day — a pattern characteristic of distribution phases near cycle tops. Isolated spikes in raw CDD can be misleading (a single large transaction can cause a one-day spike), but Binary CDD filters this by requiring sustained elevated activity to produce a high reading.

Conversely, when Binary CDD remains persistently low for weeks or months, it signals that old coins are firmly at rest and only young coins are circulating. This dormancy pattern aligns with accumulation phases where long-term holders display conviction by refusing to sell. Binary CDD is particularly useful because it removes the magnitude bias of raw CDD, focusing purely on whether old-coin activity is above or below normal.

Key Takeaways

  • •Converts raw CDD into a 1 or 0 based on whether it exceeds its long-term average.
  • •Rolling sums reveal sustained periods of old-coin spending or dormancy.
  • •Persistent high Binary CDD signals distribution; persistent low signals accumulation.
  • •Removes magnitude bias from raw CDD, focusing on consistency of old-coin activity.

Frequently Asked Questions

Raw CDD is very noisy — a single whale moving old coins can cause a massive spike that doesn't reflect broader market behavior. Binary CDD smooths this by only asking whether CDD is above or below average each day, then summing over time to detect persistent trends rather than one-off events.

Common windows are 30 days and 90 days. A 30-day window is more responsive and useful for shorter-term analysis, while a 90-day window provides a smoother view of sustained trends. The choice depends on whether you are looking for tactical signals or strategic cycle positioning.

SOPR tells you whether coins are moving at a profit or loss, while Binary CDD tells you whether old coins are consistently active. Together, they paint a fuller picture: high Binary CDD plus high SOPR means old coins are being sold at profit (distribution), while low Binary CDD plus low SOPR means mostly young coins are trading at a loss (capitulation).

Related Terms

MVRV Z-Score
A metric comparing Bitcoin's market value (current price times supply) to its realized value (the value of all coins at the price they last moved). Extreme high readings signal overvaluation; low or negative readings signal undervaluation.
Stock-to-Flow
A valuation model that prices Bitcoin based on its scarcity by dividing the existing supply (stock) by the annual production (flow). The model, popularized by analyst PlanB, suggests Bitcoin's price should increase after each halving as the flow is reduced.
NVT Ratio
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) Ratio compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its daily on-chain transaction volume. It functions similarly to a P/E ratio in traditional finance, measuring whether the network is overvalued or undervalued relative to its economic throughput.
Realized Cap
Realized Cap values each Bitcoin at the price it last moved on-chain rather than at the current market price. It represents the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation and serves as a more grounded measure of capital invested in the network.
Thermocap
Thermocap measures the total revenue paid to Bitcoin miners since the genesis block, calculated as the cumulative sum of all block rewards and transaction fees in USD terms. It represents the minimum cost of producing all existing Bitcoin.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
SOPR measures the profit ratio of coins moved on-chain by dividing the realized value of spent outputs by their value at creation. A SOPR above 1 means coins are moving at a profit on average, while below 1 means they are moving at a loss.
← Back to Glossary