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SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)

SOPR measures the profit ratio of coins moved on-chain by dividing the realized value of spent outputs by their value at creation. A SOPR above 1 means coins are moving at a profit on average, while below 1 means they are moving at a loss.

Definition

SOPR measures the profit ratio of coins moved on-chain by dividing the realized value of spent outputs by their value at creation. A SOPR above 1 means coins are moving at a profit on average, while below 1 means they are moving at a loss.

Explanation

The Spent Output Profit Ratio examines every Bitcoin transaction and compares the price at which each spent output was created to the price when it is spent. The aggregate ratio across all transactions in a given period reveals whether the market is predominantly realizing profits or losses. A SOPR of 1.05, for example, means coins are being spent at an average profit of 5%.

During bull markets, SOPR tends to stay above 1 because holders sell into rising prices, locking in gains. Dips to exactly 1.0 act as a support level — holders refuse to sell at a loss, and the bounce back above 1 confirms bullish structure. In bear markets, SOPR stays below 1 as capitulation drives transactions, and rallies back to 1.0 act as resistance where holders sell at break-even to exit positions.

The adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) filters out outputs younger than one hour to remove noise from exchanges and relay transactions. This adjusted version provides cleaner signals for cycle analysis. SOPR resets are among the most reliable on-chain patterns: in a bull market, a SOPR reset to 1.0 that bounces is a classic buy signal, while in a bear market, a SOPR rally to 1.0 that rejects is a classic sell signal.

Key Takeaways

  • •SOPR above 1 means coins are moving at a profit; below 1 means at a loss.
  • •In bull markets, dips to SOPR = 1 act as support; in bear markets, rallies to 1 act as resistance.
  • •Adjusted SOPR filters out short-lived outputs for cleaner cycle signals.
  • •SOPR resets are among the most reliable on-chain buy and sell signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

A SOPR of 1 means coins are moving at exactly their break-even price on average. This level is psychologically significant because it represents the point where holders shift between profit and loss. How price reacts at SOPR = 1 reveals the prevailing market regime.

Standard SOPR includes all spent outputs, which can be noisy due to exchange internal transfers and short-lived relay transactions. Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) excludes outputs with a lifespan of less than one hour, providing a cleaner view of genuine economic spending behavior.

SOPR is primarily a macro indicator best suited for identifying cycle phases and major trend changes. While short-term SOPR fluctuations exist, the signal is most reliable when used to confirm broader market structure over weeks and months rather than for day trading.

Related Terms

MVRV Z-Score
A metric comparing Bitcoin's market value (current price times supply) to its realized value (the value of all coins at the price they last moved). Extreme high readings signal overvaluation; low or negative readings signal undervaluation.
Stock-to-Flow
A valuation model that prices Bitcoin based on its scarcity by dividing the existing supply (stock) by the annual production (flow). The model, popularized by analyst PlanB, suggests Bitcoin's price should increase after each halving as the flow is reduced.
NVT Ratio
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) Ratio compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its daily on-chain transaction volume. It functions similarly to a P/E ratio in traditional finance, measuring whether the network is overvalued or undervalued relative to its economic throughput.
Realized Cap
Realized Cap values each Bitcoin at the price it last moved on-chain rather than at the current market price. It represents the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation and serves as a more grounded measure of capital invested in the network.
Thermocap
Thermocap measures the total revenue paid to Bitcoin miners since the genesis block, calculated as the cumulative sum of all block rewards and transaction fees in USD terms. It represents the minimum cost of producing all existing Bitcoin.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
NUPL measures the difference between Bitcoin's market cap and realized cap as a proportion of market cap, representing the aggregate unrealized profit or loss of all holders. It ranges from euphoria at the top to capitulation at the bottom.
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