A technical indicator using the 111-day and 350-day (x2) moving averages. When the shorter average crosses above the longer one, it has historically signaled Bitcoin cycle tops with remarkable accuracy.
A technical indicator using the 111-day and 350-day (x2) moving averages. When the shorter average crosses above the longer one, it has historically signaled Bitcoin cycle tops with remarkable accuracy.
The Pi Cycle Top indicator uses two moving averages to identify Bitcoin market cycle peaks: the 111-day moving average (111 DMA) and the 350-day moving average multiplied by 2 (350 DMA x 2). When the faster 111 DMA crosses above the slower 350 DMA x 2, the indicator signals a potential cycle top. The name comes from the ratio of 350 to 111, which is approximately 3.153 — close to the mathematical constant Pi (3.14159).
This indicator has an impressive track record. It signaled the 2013 cycle top within three days, the 2017 top within three days, and the 2021 top within one day. The precision is remarkable for such a simple pair of moving averages. The theory behind why it works involves the relationship between short-term and long-term momentum — when short-term enthusiasm (111 DMA) overtakes the long-term leveraged trend (350 DMA x 2), the market has likely reached exhaustion.
Despite its accuracy, the Pi Cycle Top has limitations. It has only been tested across three complete cycles, which is a small sample size. It is a lagging indicator by nature (moving averages react to past prices) and can only be confirmed after the cross has already occurred. It also does not provide information about bottoms — only tops. Used alongside MVRV Z-Score, Mayer Multiple, and the Power Law, it adds a technical perspective to the multi-indicator framework for cycle timing.
Explore real-time data and interactive charts related to Pi Cycle Top on Bitcoin Horizon.
View Live ToolThe Pi Cycle Top has signaled all three cycle tops it has been applied to with remarkable precision — within one to three days of the actual peak. However, three data points is a small sample size in statistical terms. The indicator should be used as one signal among many, not as a standalone timing tool. When it confirms signals from MVRV Z-Score and the Mayer Multiple simultaneously, the combined confidence is significantly higher than any single indicator alone.
No, the Pi Cycle Top indicator is designed specifically for identifying market cycle peaks. It does not generate bottom signals. For identifying cycle bottoms, other indicators are more useful: MVRV Z-Score below 0, Mayer Multiple below 0.8, and price at or below the Power Law support band. These bottom indicators complement the Pi Cycle Top's top-finding capability.
A Pi Cycle Top cross suggests the market may be at or near a cycle peak, which historically has been followed by 70-85% drawdowns. This does not mean selling everything immediately — the cross confirms after the peak is already forming. It is more useful as a risk management signal: consider reducing position size, taking some profits, or tightening stop losses. Always confirm with other indicators before making major portfolio changes.