Supply in Profit/Loss measures the percentage of Bitcoin's circulating supply that is currently worth more (in profit) or less (at a loss) than its last on-chain transaction price. It provides a direct gauge of aggregate holder sentiment and market cycle positioning.
Supply in Profit/Loss measures the percentage of Bitcoin's circulating supply that is currently worth more (in profit) or less (at a loss) than its last on-chain transaction price. It provides a direct gauge of aggregate holder sentiment and market cycle positioning.
Every Bitcoin UTXO has a known last-moved price, which serves as a proxy for its acquisition cost. Supply in Profit counts all coins whose last-moved price is below the current market price, while Supply in Loss counts those whose last-moved price is above. Together, they show what fraction of the total supply is underwater versus in the green.
At cycle peaks, supply in profit typically exceeds 95% — nearly everyone is winning, which breeds complacency and euphoria. At cycle bottoms, supply in profit can drop below 50%, meaning the majority of holders are underwater. These extremes have been remarkably consistent across Bitcoin's four major cycles, making the metric a reliable cycle compass.
The rate of change in supply in profit is also informative. A rapid shift from high profit to high loss indicates a sharp correction and potential capitulation. A gradual climb in supply in profit during a recovery suggests a healthy trend. When combined with MVRV or NUPL, supply in profit/loss adds granularity by showing the actual distribution of winners and losers rather than just the average.
Explore real-time data and interactive charts related to Supply in Profit/Loss on Bitcoin Horizon.
View Live ToolEach UTXO's last-moved price is compared to the current market price. If the current price is higher, those coins are counted as in profit. The total coins in profit divided by circulating supply gives the percentage. This calculation updates continuously as price moves.
When over 90% of supply is in profit, nearly all holders are sitting on gains. While this feels positive, it historically signals elevated risk because there is a large pool of potential sellers who may lock in profits. The closer to 100%, the more precarious the situation becomes.
Yes, during prolonged bear markets, supply in profit can remain below 60% for many months. These extended periods of widespread loss are painful but have consistently preceded the strongest recoveries, as weak hands gradually capitulate and transfer coins to conviction buyers.