Aggregate market cycle position from 5 indicators
The Composite Cycle Score averages the normalized progress of five independent indicators — Power Law, Pi Cycle Top, 2-Year MA Multiplier, Mayer Multiple, and MVRV Z-Score — into a single 0-100 score. Each indicator is mapped to a 0-100 scale where 0 represents deep buy territory and 100 represents extreme sell territory. The composite score provides a quick overview of where we are in the market cycle.
When the composite score is below 33, the majority of indicators are signaling accumulation opportunities. Historically these periods have offered the best risk-adjusted entry points.
When the composite score exceeds 66, most indicators are signaling overheated conditions. Historically these periods have preceded significant corrections.
Note: This composite score is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. No single metric can perfectly predict market movements. Always do your own research.
The Cycle Score is a single 0-100 number that aggregates all five cycle indicators (Power Law, Pi Cycle, 2-Year MA, Mayer Multiple, MVRV Z-Score) into one reading. The goal is to cut through the noise of individual indicators disagreeing and give a unified view of where Bitcoin sits in its long-term cycle.
Scores below 33 indicate accumulation zones — most indicators agree Bitcoin is undervalued. Scores above 66 indicate distribution zones — most indicators agree Bitcoin is overheated. Scores between 33 and 66 are neutral — the indicators either disagree or lack conviction, and no strong cycle-positioning signal is present.
Extreme scores (below 20 or above 80) have historically aligned with the most lopsided risk/reward opportunities. Near-neutral scores (45-55) mean the cycle isn't giving a clear signal — stick to your default strategy (DCA, rebalancing) and don't over-trade against ambiguous data.
The composite's strength is agreement. When four or five indicators all flash the same color, the signal has historically been far more reliable than any single indicator alone. The 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycle bottoms all produced Cycle Scores under 20 — signals that were unusually strong in retrospect.
The 2021 cycle exposed a weakness: individual indicators gave conflicting signals, and the composite muddled the picture. Pi Cycle crossed early, MVRV peaked at only Z=3.53 at the November ATH, Mayer peaked at 1.97 (April) and 1.48 (November) — well below its historical top threshold — and Power Law never reached resistance. The composite reflected that disagreement with a score that never pushed decisively into extreme-distribution territory.
Composite scores work best at cycle extremes where indicators agree. In transitional phases or unusual cycles (like 2021), the composite is only as good as its constituent parts — and when those parts disagree, the composite degrades to the average, losing its edge over any single indicator.
The composite can't outperform its worst indicator. If one or two indicators have broken thresholds (like Mayer's 2.4 or 2-Year MA's 5×), those components drag the composite in potentially misleading directions. The score's value depends on periodic recalibration of individual thresholds.
It's a slow signal. Cycle scores move over weeks as their constituents update. For tactical trading, individual indicators are more responsive. Use Cycle Score for macro positioning, not for intraday or even intraweek decisions.
The weighting of constituent indicators is a design choice. Different weightings produce different composite scores. Our weighting favors on-chain and valuation signals (MVRV, Power Law) slightly over trend-following signals (Pi Cycle, 2-Year MA). This is a reasonable default but not objectively correct.
A 65.3 score sounds more precise than "slightly overvalued" but carries the same information. Don't over-interpret small score changes. Worry about moves of 15-20 points, not 1-2 points.
The Composite Cycle Score shows where we are — act on the signal with Coinbase.
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