The LTH/STH Supply Ratio compares the amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders (coins unmoved for 155+ days) to Short-Term Holders (coins moved within the last 155 days). It tracks the tug-of-war between accumulation by patient holders and distribution to newer market participants.
The LTH/STH Supply Ratio compares the amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders (coins unmoved for 155+ days) to Short-Term Holders (coins moved within the last 155 days). It tracks the tug-of-war between accumulation by patient holders and distribution to newer market participants.
In on-chain analysis, Long-Term Holders (LTH) are defined as entities holding coins that have not moved for at least 155 days, while Short-Term Holders (STH) hold coins that have moved within the last 155 days. The 155-day threshold is based on research showing that coins held beyond this point have a statistically low probability of being sold. The LTH/STH Supply Ratio divides total LTH supply by total STH supply.
This ratio follows a predictable cyclical pattern. During bear markets and early recovery phases, the ratio climbs as patient holders accumulate and refuse to sell, gradually converting STH supply into LTH supply. The ratio peaks just before or during the early stages of a bull run, when long-term holder supply is at its maximum. As prices surge, LTH holders begin distributing to eager new buyers, and the ratio declines.
The inflection points of this ratio are powerful signals. When the LTH/STH ratio begins declining after a sustained rise, it marks the start of distribution — long-term holders are selling into strength. When it begins rising after a sustained decline, it marks the start of re-accumulation — smart money is buying the fear. These transitions between accumulation and distribution regimes are among the most reliable structural signals in Bitcoin cycle analysis.
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View Live ToolResearch by Glassnode found that coins held beyond 155 days have a statistically very low likelihood of being spent. This threshold effectively separates conviction holders from speculative traders and has proven to be a meaningful behavioral boundary across multiple Bitcoin cycles.
At bull market peaks, the LTH/STH ratio drops significantly as long-term holders distribute coins to new buyers. STH supply surges while LTH supply contracts. The most aggressive distribution — where the ratio falls fastest — has historically aligned with the final phase of a cycle top.
A rising ratio during price weakness suggests smart money accumulation and is generally bullish for the medium term. A falling ratio during price strength suggests distribution and warrants caution. The ratio is best used for strategic cycle positioning rather than short-term timing.