The Puell Multiple divides the daily issuance value of Bitcoin (in USD) by its 365-day moving average. It measures whether miners are earning significantly more or less than their yearly average, highlighting potential cycle extremes.
The Puell Multiple divides the daily issuance value of Bitcoin (in USD) by its 365-day moving average. It measures whether miners are earning significantly more or less than their yearly average, highlighting potential cycle extremes.
The Puell Multiple focuses on the revenue side of Bitcoin mining. Each day, a fixed number of new Bitcoin are issued to miners as block subsidies. By comparing the USD value of this daily issuance to its one-year moving average, the Puell Multiple reveals periods when miners are earning windfall profits or struggling to stay solvent.
When the Puell Multiple is above 4, miners are earning more than four times their yearly average in USD terms. This extreme profitability has historically coincided with late-stage bull runs where price has overshot fundamentals. Conversely, when the multiple drops below 0.5, miners are earning less than half their typical revenue, creating financial stress that forces weaker miners offline and often aligns with market bottoms.
The indicator is especially powerful around halving events, which instantly cut the issuance reward in half. Halvings cause the Puell Multiple to drop sharply as daily issuance value falls, creating a reset that has preceded every major bull run in Bitcoin's history. Investors use the Puell Multiple to time entries near miner capitulation and to take profits when miner revenue becomes euphoric.
Miners are the largest natural sellers of Bitcoin because they must cover operational costs. When their revenue is extremely high, sell pressure increases. When revenue is extremely low, weaker miners capitulate and sell pressure dries up. These extremes reliably mark cycle turning points.
Halvings cut the block subsidy in half, immediately reducing daily issuance value and causing the Puell Multiple to drop. This forced reduction in miner revenue creates a supply shock that has historically preceded significant price appreciation over the following 12 to 18 months.
While the Puell Multiple is a strong indicator, it is most effective when combined with other metrics like Hash Ribbons or MVRV. Miner revenue can be influenced by factors beyond price, such as transaction fee spikes, so confirmation from multiple indicators provides higher conviction.